Prioritizing Assumptions

This lesson teaches innovators how to prioritize assumptions to form well-crafted hypotheses, guiding experiments that yield the most impactful insights. Doing so reduces risk and waste while maximizing learning and confidence.

Overview:

Imagine you’re working on an app that helps people track their water intake. Before diving in, your leader asks, “What’s your highest-priority assumption?” You realize your assumption is that users will actually take time to log each glass of water they drink. Instead of guessing, you form a hypothesis: “If users value hydration tracking, then they’ll engage daily.”

You design a simple experiment—a basic app prototype—to measure engagement over a week. This quick test confirms that users need automated tracking, not manual input. By prioritizing the right assumption, you’ve saved time and resources and avoided a costly misstep.

Key Concepts Covered:

• Identifying Core Assumptions: How to determine which assumptions are fundamental to the success of the innovation and align with the mission.
• Assessing Risk and Impact: Evaluating the potential risks of each assumption and its impact on the project’s success to prioritize the most critical ones.
• Hypothesis Formation: Crafting clear hypotheses from prioritized assumptions to run effective experiments that validate or invalidate key beliefs.
• Experiment Alignment: Ensuring experiments are structured to fit within organizational constraints and resource availability.
• Learning and Adaptation: Using experimental outcomes to inform the next steps, build trust, and make data-driven decisions about pivots or next iterations.

Want to learn more?:

Check out these resources!

• “Innovation Risk: How to Make Smarter Decisions” by Harvard Business Review - This article discusses how to use risk as a factor in prioritizing assumptions. It explains how leaders and teams can focus on high-impact areas, testing the riskiest assumptions first to inform decision-making and adjust their approach based on experimental outcomes.
• "How to Use Multiple Prioritization Frameworks" by ProductPlan - This guide on assumption mapping helps innovators identify and prioritize assumptions based on risk and potential impact. This resource offers a practical framework to ensure experiments are focused on the most critical assumptions, maximizing learning while minimizing resource use.